Eminyakeni emibili edlule, imakethe ye-semiconductor ibe nenkathi ye-boom engakaze ibonwe, kodwa kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka, isidingo siphendukele esimweni esinciphayo futhi sabhekana nesikhathi sokuma.Hhayi inkumbulo kuphela, kodwa futhi nezinkampani zama-wafer kanye nezinkampani zokuklama ze-semiconductor ziye zashaywa yigagasi elibandayo, futhi imakethe ye-semiconductor ingase "ihlehlise ukukhula" ngonyaka ozayo.Mayelana nalokhu, izinkampani ezikhiqiza ama-semiconductor seziqalile ukunciphisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ezikhungweni futhi ziqinise amabhande azo;Qala ukugwema inkinga.
1. Ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor emhlabeni jikelele ukukhula okungekuhle kwe-4.1% ngonyaka ozayo
Kulo nyaka, imakethe ye-semiconductor ishintshe ngokushesha isuka ku-boom iye kwi-bust futhi idlula enkathini yoshintsho oluqinile kunangaphambili.
Kusukela ngo-2020, i-imakethe ye-semiconductor, eye yajabulela ukuchuma ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwe- supply chain nezinye izizathu, ingene enkathini yamakhaza amakhulu engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka.Ngokusho kwe-SIA, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke bekungama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-47 ngoSepthemba, kwehle ngo-3% kusukela ngenyanga efanayo ngonyaka odlule.Lokhu ukwehla kokuthengiswa kokuqala eminyakeni emibili nezinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili kusukela ngoJanuwari 2020.
Ngalokhu njengesiqalo, kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwemakethe ye-semiconductor emhlabeni wonke kuzokhula kakhulu kulo nyaka futhi kubuyisele emuva ukukhula ngonyaka ozayo.Ekupheleni kukaNovemba kulo nyaka, i-WSTS yamemezela ukuthi imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-4.4% uma iqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, ifinyelele kuma-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-580.1.Lokhu kuhluke kakhulu ekukhuleni kwangonyaka odlule ngama-26.2% ekuthengisweni kwama-semiconductor.
Ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kube cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-556.5 ngonyaka ozayo, kwehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.1 kusukela kulo nyaka.Ngo-Agasti kuphela, i-WSTS yabikezela ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwemakethe ye-semiconductor kuzokhula ngo-4.6% ngonyaka ozayo, kodwa kubuyele ekubikezelweni okungalungile phakathi nezinyanga ezingu-3.
Ukwehla kokuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor kudalwe ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla yasendlini, ama-TV, ama-smartphones, amakhompyutha wamabhuku, neminye imikhiqizo yokwengeza, ebifunwa kakhulu.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngenxaukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikelele, umqedazwe omusha womqhele, impi yaseRussia-Ukraine, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo nezinye izizathu, isifiso sabathengi sokuthenga siyancipha, futhi imakethe yabathengi ibhekene nesikhathi sokuma.
Ikakhulukazi, ukuthengiswa kwama-semiconductors enkumbulo kwehle kakhulu.Ukuthengiswa kwememori kwehle ngamaphesenti angu-12.6 kulo nyaka kusukela ngonyaka odlule kuya ku-$134.4 billion, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ngokuqhubekayo cishe ngamaphesenti angu-17 ngonyaka ozayo.
IMicron Technology, ekleliswe endaweni yesithathu ngesabelo se-DARM, yamemezela ngomhlaka-22 ukuthi esimemezelweni semiphumela yekota yokuqala (Septhemba-November 2022), ukulahleka kokusebenza kufinyelele ezigidini ezingama-290 zamadola aseMelika.Le nkampani ibikezela ukulahlekelwa okukhulu nakakhulu engxenyeni yesibili yezimali zika-2023 kuze kube nguFebhuwari wonyaka ozayo.
Amanye ama-memory giants amabili, i-Samsung Electronics ne-SK Hannix, kungenzeka zehle ngekota yesine.Muva nje, imboni yezokuphepha ibikezele ukuthi i-SK Hynix, ethembele kakhulu enkumbulweni, izosebenzisa imali engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-800 zamaRandi engxenyeni yesine yalo nyaka.
Uma sibheka isimo semakethe yenkumbulo yamanje, intengo yangempela nayo yehla kakhulu.Ngokusho kwe-ejensi, intengo yokuthenga engaguquki ye-DRAM kwikota yesithathu yehle cishe ngo-10% yaya ku-15% uma iqhathaniswa nekota edlule.Ngenxa yalokhu, ukuthengiswa kwe-DRAM yomhlaba wonke kwehle kwafinyelela ku- $18,187 wezigidi ngekota yesithathu, kwehle ngo-28.9% kumakota amabili edlule.Lokhu ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu kusukela ngenhlekelele yezimali yomhlaba ka-2008.
Inkumbulo ye-Flash ye-NAND nayo yanikezwa ngokweqile, ngenani elijwayelekile lokuthengisa (i-ASP) engxenyeni yesithathu lehle ngo-18.3% kunekota edlule, futhi ukuthengiswa kwe-NAND yomhlaba wonke engxenyeni yesithathu yalo nyaka bekungama- $13,713.6 wezigidi, kwehle ngo-24.3% kunekota edlule.
Imakethe ye-Foundry nayo isiqede inkathi yokusetshenziswa kwamandla okungu-100%.Yehle yafinyelela ngaphezu kwama-90% kumakota amathathu edlule nangaphezulu kwamaphesenti angama-80 ngemuva kokungena kwikota yesine.I-TSMC, umdondoshiya omkhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni, iyafana.Ama-oda amakhasimende enkampani engxenyeni yesine abehle ngamaphesenti angama-40 kuye kwangama-50 kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi iqoqo lemikhiqizo ebekiwe enjengama-smartphones, ama-TV, amaphilisi, kanye nezincwadi zokubhalela ze-PC linyukile, futhi ukuqoqwa kwezinkampani ze-semiconductor engxenyeni yesithathu kukhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-50% uma kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala.
Abanye abantu embonini bakholelwa ukuthi "kuze kube yingxenye yesibili ka-2023, lapho kufika isizini ephakeme kakhulu yesizini, isimo semboni ye-semiconductor kulindeleke ukuthi sibe ngcono ngokuphelele."
2. Ukunciphisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye namandla okukhiqiza kuzoxazulula inkingaInkinga yokusungula ye-IC
Ngemuva kokuncipha kwesidingo se-semiconductor kanye nokuqoqwa kwempahla, abahlinzeki abakhulu be-semiconductor baqale ukuqinisa imisebenzi emikhulu ngokunciphisa ukukhiqiza nokunciphisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ezikhungweni.Ngokwenkampani yangaphambilini yomhlaziyi wemakethe i-IC Insights, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwemishini ye-semiconductor emhlabeni wonke ngonyaka ozayo kuzoba ngaphansi ngo-19% kunalo nyaka, kufinyelele ku-$146.6 billion.
I-SK Hynix ithe esimemezelweni sayo semiphumela yekota yesithathu ngenyanga edlule ukuthi inqume ukunciphisa izinga lokutshalwa kwezimali ngaphezu kuka-50% ngonyaka ozayo uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka.IMicron imemezele ukuthi ngonyaka ozayo izokwehlisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimali ezingaphezu kuka-30% kusuka ohlelweni lokuqala futhi inciphise isibalo sabasebenzi ngo-10%.I-Kioxia, ekleliswe endaweni yesithathu kusabelo se-NAND, iphinde yathi ukukhiqizwa kwe-wafer kuzoncishiswa cishe ngo-30% kusukela ngo-Okthoba walo nyaka.
Ngokuphambene nalokho, i-Samsung Electronics, enesabelo esikhulu semakethe yenkumbulo, yathi ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nesidingo sesikhathi eside, ngeke kunciphise ukutshalwa kwezimali kwe-semiconductor, kodwa kuzoqhubeka ngokohlelo.Kepha muva nje, uma kubhekwa ukwehla kwamanje kuhlu lwezimboni zenkumbulo nezintengo, i-Samsung Electronics ingase futhi ilungise ukunikezwa ekuqaleni kwekota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo.
I-system semiconductor kanye nezimboni ze-Foundry nazo zizonciphisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezikhungo.Ngomhla zingama-27, i-Intel ihlongoze uhlelo lokunciphisa izindleko zokusebenza ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu zamaRandi ngonyaka ozayo futhi kuncishiswe isabelomali sokusebenza ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalombili kuya ku-US$10 wezigidigidi ngo-2025 esimemezelweni sayo sekota yesithathu.Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimali kulo nyaka kungaphansi ngamaphesenti angu-8 kunohlelo lwamanje.
I-TSMC ithe esimemezelweni sayo sekota yesithathu semiphumela ngo-Okthoba ukuthi izinga lokutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhungo kulo nyaka lihlelelwe ukuthi libe ngama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-40-44 ekuqaleni konyaka, ukwehla okungaphezulu kwe-10%.I-UMC iphinde yamemezela ukwehliswa kokutshalwa kwezimali okuhleliwe kusuka ku-$3.6 billion kulo nyaka.Ngenxa yokwehliswa kwakamuva kokusetshenziswa kwe-FAB embonini yabasunguli, ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhungo ngonyaka ozayo kubonakala kungenakugwema.
U-Hewlett-Packard no-Dell, abakhiqizi bamakhompyutha abakhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, balindele ukuthi isidingo samakhompyutha womuntu siqu sizokwehla nakakhulu ngo-2023. UDell ubike ukwehla ngamaphesenti angu-6 emalini engenayo engxenyeni yesithathu, okuhlanganisa ukwehla ngamaphesenti angu-17 esigabeni sayo, esithengisa amakhompyutha aphathekayo kanye namakhompyutha aphathekayo. amadeskithophu kumakhasimende abathengi namabhizinisi.
Isikhulu esiphezulu se-HP u-Enrique Lores uthe uhlu lwe-PC kungenzeka luhlale luphezulu ezingxenyeni ezimbili ezizayo.“Okwamanje, sinempahla eningi, ikakhulukazi eye-PCS yabathengi, futhi sisebenzela ukwehlisa leyo mpahla,” kusho u-Lores.
Isiphetho:Abenzi bama-chip bamazwe ngamazwe balinganisele ekubikezelweni kwebhizinisi kwabo kwango-2023 futhi bakulungele ukusebenzisa izindlela zokunqanda izindleko.Yize isidingo ngokuvamile silindeleke ukuthi sibuyele esimweni esihle engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ozayo, izinkampani eziningi ezihlinzeka ngempahla azinasiqiniseko sokuthi zizoqala kuphi kanye nezinga lokusimama kwalo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-09-2023