Akuyona nje indawo ethengiswayo kuphela okufanele isuswe, kodwa nomakhalekhukhwini.
Ngokusho kukangoti wocwaningo ngomakhalekhukhwini uMing-Chi Kuo,Imishini ye-Androidbabhekene nengozi yokusungula okuphezulu, ku-Xiaomi mayelana nenani elilingana ne-20-30 million yezingxenye zomakhalekhukhwini, inqwaba enamandla kakhulu yi-processor, omakhalekhukhwini be-Samsung kanye nezingxenye zabo zokusungula, kulindeleke ukuthi ngoJuni kungase kwehliswe emanzini avamile. izinga.
NgoMeyi odlule, imboni ye-smartphone yaseChina yashaqisa i-inventory ye-smartphone eyizigidi ezingu-30, ukuwa komfutho kunalokho obekulindelekile, kuya kumakota amathathu, uhlu lwabakhiqizi be-chip ye-Android system cell phone olunendandatho lwaqhubeka lukhuphuka, amasheya we-Weir, ubuchwepheshe be-Jusheng micro kanye ne-Huideng, Izinsuku zokutholwa kwempahla zedlule izinga eliphakathi cishe leminyaka emithathu, kuyilapho ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwama-smartphone emhlabeni wonke ngonyaka odlule, kwehle kwafika endaweni ephansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2013.
Omakhalekhukhwini basekhaya abasezingeni eliphansi nabasezingeni eliphakathi bangenisa impi yentengo engakaze ibonwe, amamodeli asezingeni eliphezulu akwa-Apple nawo angukwehliswa kwentengo okuyivelakancane, ukusilela emuva kwamanje kwezinkinga zokusungula amaselula isikhathi esingaphezu konyaka, indlela yokufaka nokushaqisa yasekhaya kanye Iketanga lemboni yezingxenye zamaselula angaphandle?I-inventory izosulwa nini?Funda lesi sihloko futhi uzofunda mayelana.
1. Xiaomi, Samsung cell phone yokusungula isimo
2. kanjani abakhiqizi umakhalekhukhwini ukuba yokusungula
3. Ukusebenza kwakamuva kwe-cell phone supply chain
01 Ukuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho kwe-Android
Isidingo esiphansi nesimaphakathi yisona esibi kakhulu
Imishini ye-Android ibhekene nobungozi bokusungula okuphezulu, futhi imvume yokusungula kukhona ukwehla okukhulu komnotho, ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka sezingxenye nezingxenye ezivela kumikhiqizo noma abasabalalisi / abathengisi, ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi izinyanga ezizayo ze-6-9 zisazobona inani elikhulu ukuthunyelwa kwezinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka liyehla.
Imali engenayo yebhizinisi lamaselula e-Xiaomi yehle ngo-11.1% unyaka nonyaka engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022, ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphone kwehle ngo-8.4% unyaka nonyaka kuya kumayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-40 nama-ASP omakhalekhukhwini ehle ngo-3% yaya ku-1,058 yuan.
Iphromoshini yesaphuleloisaqhubeka, muva nje uMongameli weQembu le-Xiaomi uLu Weibing uthe intengo yeRedmiK60 yayo entsha, ekhishwe ngoDisemba, yehlisiwe yaba ngamayuan ayi-2,999 kuphela ngo-12+512GB, ukuncishiswa kwentengo ngama-yuan angama-300, kanye nesiqinisekiso senani lentengo. abasebenzisi asebevele bayithengile le nguqulo.
Eqinisweni, ngokuphromotha ekupheleni konyaka odlule, uhlu lwamagama omakhalekhukhwini we-Xiaomi lwenani elikhulu lemikhiqizo enenani eliphansi neliphakathi lwehlile, kodwa okwamanje alikakhululeki ngokuphelele engcupheni yokusungula izinto eziphezulu.Ukuqanjwa kwayo “kwempahla ekhiqiziwe” kufinyelele kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-27.3 engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022, yehle kunonyaka owandulele, kodwa ibalelwa ku-65% wemali engenayo yomakhalekhukhwini engxenyeni yesithathu.
Ukusebenza kwe-Samsung yomhlaba wonke kwekamu le-Android akulona ithemba.
Imali engenayo yekota yesine ka-2022 ye-Samsung Electronics yehle ngamaphesenti angu-8 unyaka nonyaka futhi inzuzo yokusebenza yaba ngaphansi kunalokho obekucatshangwa ngaphambilini ngenxa, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngenxa yokuthengiswa okuhamba kancane kwama-smartphone esigabeni sayo se-MX (Mobile eXperience).Uphiko lwe-Samsung lwe-MX luyingxenye yeqembu lebhizinisi le-DX (Device eXperience), futhi imali engenayo yehle ngo-4% unyaka nonyaka kanye no-10% ngokulandelana kwikota yesine ka-2022 lapho ihlanganiswa nemali engenayo yezinto zikagesi zasendlini neminye imikhiqizo.
Ukuma komakhalekhukhwini, ama-chips omakhalekhukhwini nezinye izingxenye ze-electronics zinqwabelanisa, indlela yokugaya lezi zimpahla, abakhiqizi bamaselula benze umsebenzi wabo wesikole.Ama-chip majors aveze ukuthi isidingo emakethe yamaselula esezingeni eliphansi naphakathi sibuthakathaka kakhulu uma siqhathaniswa nemakethe yamaselula esezingeni eliphezulu.Eqinisweni, endaweni yenani lentengo lama-yuan angu-1000-3000 emakethe yamaselula esezingeni eliphansi namaphakathi, amafoni ahlakaniphile asekhaya amboza ububanzi obukhulu futhi.
Okuqondile kakhulu yizimvume, impi yentengo, abakhiqizi bomakhalekhukhwini abavamile baku-“6.18″, “Double 11″ namanye amanodi esikhathi abalulekile wamaphromoshini amakhulu.NgoNovemba odlule, imakethe yamaselula yangenisa umgubho “wephathi yokulinda”, inkambu ye-Android, ama-yuan angu-2000 angathenga ukucushwa kokusebenza okulingene “komshini webhakede”, ￥1000 intengo ingaphezu kokuvumela abantu bakhethe iso.￥2000-3000 ubakaki we Ukwehliswa kwentengo kuvame ukuba sobala kakhulu.
Omakhalekhukhwini bakwa-Apple ngaphandle kwekamu le-Android, nabo okusolakala ukuthi babambe iqhaza enqubweni yokunciphisa amanani, ngonyaka odlule omakhalekhukhwini bakwa-Apple basanda kukhishwa ngaphansi kwenyanga, ngaphezu kwamamodeli asezingeni eliphezulu amamodeli ajwayelekile awe ngaphansi kwama-yuan angama-5200, kusukela ngoFebhuwari 5 lokhu. Ngonyaka, i-Apple nayo yokwehliswa kwentengo eyivelakancane, amamodeli aphezulu e-iPhone 14 Pro uchungechunge lwezitolo ezigunyaziwe ezingaxhunyiwe ku-inthanethi ngokuvamile zehlisa amanani ngama-yuan angama-700, imakethe yama-smartphone yomhlaba wonke ingenisa isikhathi esimnyama.
Abakhiqizi ekwethulweni kweukucushwa komshini omusha, kungase futhi kusekelwe ekucabangeni kwe-inventory, bayazi "iwayini elidala emabhodleleni amasha", enembile kakhulu imodeli ingasetshenziswa ukucushwa okuhambisanayo okuncane.
Abanye abasebenzisi abanolwazi bathi kulo nyaka, sibona imikhiqizo eminingi, ngisho nemikhiqizo eyinhloko, iqhubeka nokusebenzisa izingxenye ezindala kakhulu, futhi ezinye izingxenye ezine-inventory enkulu kufanele zisetshenziswe kumamodeli ayinhloko, imikhiqizo yegatsha ayikwazi nje ukugaya i-inventory.
Kusukela engxenyeni yesibili ka-2021, ama-oda wokusika amaselula aseqalile ukuvutshelwa, ngokusho kwezibalo zeJiji Cat, amamodeli amaningi ngo-2021 ekucushweni kwemikhiqizo ethile eqhumayo ethandwayo ukuze icushwe kahle, bese ifakwa ohlwini oluzothengiswa ngo-2022.
Okunye ukucushwa kwakudala kweminyaka edlule ngo-2022 kusengavame ukubona, njenge-Qualcomm Snapdragon 870, i-Snapdragon 778, amazinga omakhalekhukhwini i-CMOS IMX766, inhlanganisela yakudala yekhamera engaphansi engu-8 + 2 MP, igiya elisha lasentwasahlobo elihlanganisa nemikhiqizo ephambili. , kuhlanganise nemikhiqizo eyinhloko ngayinye, sikhafula ukuthuthukiswa akubonakali, futhi ezinye zehlisiwe.
Isikhathi eside, umjikelezo wokushintshwa kokuvumelana kwemboni kwaba yizinyanga eziyi-18, kepha ngo-2022, umjikelezo wokushintsha abathengi basekhaya welulelwa ezinyangeni ezingama-30 nezingama-36.Umholi wophiko lokuhlinzekwa kwabakhiqizi bezingcingo uthe kusukela ngekota yesithathu neyesine ka-2021, ukwehliswa kwamanani sekuyindikimba eyinhloko yabakhiqizi bamaselula, ukusakazwa kwemakethe kwe-MediaTek kanye ne-Qualcomm's processor chips sekuqalile ukwehlisa amanani.
Ukwehliswa kwentengo yomshini omusha kuyaqhubeka kuze kube sekuqaleni konyaka ka-2023, amafoni asezingeni eliphansi, intengo yocansi yakwaRedmi ayiseyona i-monopoly, i-Ace2 ehlanganisiwe, ingxenye yentengo ye-GT Neo5 yeqiniso engu-2000-3000 yuan, ingagcini ibuthakathaka kune- Ukucushwa kwe-K60 ngesikhathi esifanayo ubuqotho bentengo.
Abakhiqizi bakamuva bangabhekana kanjani nokuwohloka komnotho okufunwayo, mhlawumbe kumkhosi wokuthenga walo nyaka “ongu-6.18″ ungabonakala – obani amanani entengo ephezulu, abadayise kabi, ingcindezi yempahla.
02 Imiphumela yakamuva yochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngomakhalekhukhwini.
Ukushelela, Ubuthaka
Izingxenye ze-elekthronikhi zocingo oluphathwayo, inkumbulo ibalelwa ku-15-20%, ama-processor namanye ama-chips afinyelela ku-15-20%, izikrini zokubonisa 10-20%, amakhamera 10-15%, RF/antenna 5-10%, ngaphezu kwamagobolondo/izingxenye zesakhiwo, amabhethri, i-FPC/PCB nokunye.
Ngo-2022, uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwamaselula ngokuvamile luthintwa ukwehla kwamandla omnotho okunzima kwabathengi, futhi izinga lokusungula lilokhu likhanya libomvu, lize liholele ekulahlekelweni kokusebenza, okuhlanganisa kodwa kungagcini nje nge-chip duo yeselula iMediaTek neQualcomm, eTexas Instruments uhla olubanzi lwamakhasimende, umholi we-chip yokuhlonza izigxivizo zeminwe u-Huitian Technology, umholi we-lens optical global u-Sunwoo Optical, abenzi bama-chip be-RF basekhaya abakhethiwe u-Chosen Micro kanye ne-VTech, umholi we-MLCC u-Murata, kanye nenqwaba yabakhiqizi be-memory chip, bangenisa isimo semakethe esiyinselele kakhulu ngo-2023. .
Okulandelayo imiphumela yakamuva yenkampani ngayinye ehlobene nengxenye ye-electronic cell phone.
Amaphrosesa omakhalekhukhwini namanye ama-chip
Imali engenayo ye-MediaTek ye-Q4 2022 yehle ngo-25% unyaka nonyaka kanye no-26% ngokulandelana.Ingxenye yebhizinisi le-handset, enikele ngama-52% emali engenayo ye-MediaTek engxenyeni yesine ka-2022, yehle ngo-25% unyaka nonyaka kanye no-30% ngokulandelana ngenxa yokwehla kwenani labantu eChina, isidingo esibuthakathaka sabathengi kanye nokulungiswa kokusungula kwe-smartphone ye-OEM njengamakhasimende ngobudlova. lungisa izinto zabo zokusungula, ingxenye yeMediaTek ibuyekeze imali engenayo yekota yokuqala ka-2023 yehle yafinyelela ku- $300- $ 3.4 billion, yehle ngo-35- I-MediaTek yehlise imali engenayo yaya ku- $300-3.4 billion we-Q1 2023, yehle ngo-35-40% unyaka nonyaka futhi 3-12% ngokulandelana, futhi iqondise amazinga e-inventory ukuthi abuyele kokujwayelekile ekupheleni kwe-H1 2023.
Ingxenye yemali engenayo ye-Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies (QCT) yekota yokuqala yezimali ka-2022/23, ehlanganisa ama-smartphone chips, i-RF front-end, ama-chips ezimoto namadivayisi we-IoT, yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-11 unyaka nonyaka, kanti imali engenayo ye-handset chip yehle ngo-18. amaphesenti unyaka nonyaka.Uma kubhekwa isimo sezomnotho nesidingo, inkampani iqhubeka nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali futhi manje ilindele ukukhuphuka kwamazinga e-inventory embonini ye-handsets ukuthi kuqhubeke kuze kube okungenani ingxenye yokuqala ka-2023, nokwehla okwengeziwe ekuthunyelweni kwe-handset 3G, 4G kanye ne-5G okungenzeka ngo-2023 uma kuqhathaniswa. ku-2022.
Umholi we-chip yokuhlonza izigxivizo zeminwe u-Huideng Technology ulindele ukuzuza inzuzo ephelele etholwa abanikazi benkampani engumzali engu--900 million yuan kuya -600 million yuan ngonyaka ka-2022, uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo sonyaka odlule, okuzoholela ekulahlekelweni. .Isizathu esiyinhloko soshintsho ekusebenzeni ukuthi iningi lemikhiqizo yenkampani incike emakethe ye-smartphone, ethintekayo isimo samazwe ngamazwe, umnotho omkhulu kanye nobhubhane oluqhubekayo, okuholela ekwehleni okukhulu kwemakethe kanye nesidingo samakhasimende;ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuncintisana komkhiqizo oyinhloko wenkampani kukhulise ingcindezi yentengo yokuthengisa, okuholele ekwehleni konyaka nonyaka ngo-35% kuya ku-45% emalini engenayo yokusebenza kwenkampani ngo-2022. Ngezimali zika-2022, ukuhlinzekwa kokonakala kwempahla ehlukahlukene ilinganiselwa ku-$702 million kuya ku-$872 million.
Imemori yefoni yeselula
Imali engenayo ye-Samsung Electronics' Q4 2022 yehle ngo-8%, inzuzo yokusebenza yehle ngo-69% unyaka nonyaka.Iqembu lebhizinisi le-DS (Device Solutions), elibhekele ikakhulukazi ibhizinisi le-semiconductor kanye ne-chip Foundry, libike ukwehla kwenzuzo ngo-24% engxenyeni yesine ka-2022 uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule kanye nokwehla ngo-13% kusukela esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. ;imali yayo onyakeni ogcwele 2022 kwaba 9,846 bhiliyoni won (cishe $79.9 bhiliyoni), ukwanda 3% uma kuqhathaniswa 2021. Ukwehla kwemali engenayo yaleli qembu lebhizinisi kwaba ngokuyinhloko ngenxa iklayenti-side inventory ukumuncwa kanye aphansi flash memory chip amanani.
Imali engenayo yekota yesine ye-SK Hynix ka-2022 yehle ngamaphesenti angama-38 unyaka nonyaka, nokulahlekelwa yingqikithi yama-3.52 trillion ewiniwe (ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.881), uma kuqhathaniswa nenzuzo yonke ye-3.32 trillion ewiniwe ($2.717 billion) ngonyaka owedlule, i-SK Hynix yokuqala ngekota. ukulahlekelwa kusukela ngekota yesithathu ka-2012 kanye nokulahlekelwa okukhulu kwekota okurekhodiwe.I-SK Hynix isalokhu ingenathemba ngesidingo semakethe ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, ilindele ukuthi izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwe-chip ye-DRAM lingehla ngaphezu kuka-10% futhi ukwehla kuzoqhubeka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.
Inzuzo kaMicron yehle ngo-39% ngokulandelana kanye no-47% unyaka nonyaka engxenyeni yokuqala yezimali ka-2023. Uma kucatshangelwa ukungafani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esiya ku-2023, iMicron ilindele ukuthi inzuzo yomkhakha wonke ibe nenselelo unyaka wonke.UMcron uthatha isinyathelo esiwujuqu ukuze anciphise ukutholakala nezindleko.UMcron uthatha isinyathelo esiwujuqu ukuze anciphise ukutholakala nezindleko.
Isibonisi seselula
Isibonisi sasekhaya esikhulu se-BOE 2022 imali yokuqala yamakota amathathu ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-132.744, yehle ngo-19.45% unyaka nonyaka;inzuzo enenzuzo engu-5.291 billion yuan, yehle ngo-73.75% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, imali engenayo yekota yesithathu ibiyi-RMB 41.134 billion, yehle ngo-26.79% unyaka nonyaka;inzuzo egcwele eyatholwa umama yayingama-RMB 1.305 billion.2022 Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba, inkampani yenza amalungiselelo okonakala kwempahla ehlukahlukene enesamba esingu-RMB 7,482.22 wezigidi, futhi ukulahlekelwa kokonakala kuthinte isamba senzuzo engu-RMB 2,957.17 million.
Imali engenayo yeqembu lebhizinisi le-Samsung SDC (Samsung Display) ngekota yesine ka-2022 yazuzwa amathriliyoni angama-9.31 (cishe amabhiliyoni angama-7.6), yehle ngo-3% unyaka nonyaka kanye no-1% ngokulandelana;unyaka ogcwele we-2022 imali engenayo yayingu-3.438 trillion won (cishe ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-27.9), ikhuphuke ngo-8% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2021. AbakwaSamsung bathi amaphaneli e-OLED omakhalekhukhwini aphezulu awazange athinteke kakhulu, imali engenayo ihlala iqinile.
Uhlu lwama-chip luphinde lwavela izolo
Izolulama nini?
Imboni yamaselula iye yaba nezinselelo zokusungula izinto esikhathini esidlule.
Ku-2014, ngokufika kwenkathi ye-4G, opharetha abathathu abakhulu ukunciphisa uxhaso, ukuhlakazeka kwe-"China Cool Union", ibhizinisi lesiteshi sasekhaya lashaqeka "i-inventory yezigidi ezingu-200";ikota yokuqala yokuqubuka komqhele omusha ka-2020, izinto zivinjiwe, ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphone e-China okungaphansi kwezigidi ezingama-50, okuphansi kakhulu ezindaweni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokugcina, kusukela ngaleso sikhathi ukusetshenziswa okungavinjwa nokuphindisela, ikota yesibili yokuthunyelwa kuka-2020 ngaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-100.
Ukukhishwa kwempahla yokuphela konyaka sekubuye kwaba umsebenzi ojwayelekile wabakhiqizi bama-smartphone, njengokuncishiswa okubalulekile kochungechunge lwe-Android ukuze kuqedwe izixazululo ezingezona isikrini esigcwele ekupheleni kuka-2017, kanye nokuncipha kokuntuleka kokuqamba okusha kwa-Apple. amamodeli ekupheleni kuka-2018.
Esimeni sesigameko seHuawei kanye nokuntuleka kwe-core tide ngo-2021, abakhiqizi bamaselula babhekene nokuncintisana okunonya kanye nokubeka engcupheni yokusungula ukukhulisa isitoko.Ukuhoxiswa kweHuawei, ehlanganisa u-40% -50% wemakethe kazwelonke yomakhalekhukhwini, nakho kwenza abadlali bamaselula baqale ukuba nethemba ngokungaboni.Futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali ka-2022, isimo eRussia nase-Ukraine, ubhubhane lwasekhaya, abathengi bamaselula ukuze bathathe indawo yokupholisa imizwa, abantu abaningi bakhetha ukuqhubeka “nokucophelela”.
NgoMeyi 2022, abezindaba bachaza ukwehla kwemboni yama-smartphone yase-China “njengomkhuba wokuwohloka”, njengoba imboni yomakhalekhukhwini isivele inama-smartphones ayizigidi ezingama-30 esitokweni, okuhlanganisa nemikhiqizo eqediwe engaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-20 kanye nemikhiqizo eseqediwe engaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-10 kanye nezingxenye ezibalulekile. kukhona kusitoki.I-Strategy Analytics ikhiphe umbiko okhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphone emhlabeni jikelele kwamayunithi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.2 ngo-2022 kusezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2013.
Emakethe yasekhaya, imakethe yama-smartphone yaseChina izothumela cishe amayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-286 ngo-2022, yehle ngo-13.2% unyaka nonyaka.Ngekota yesine, imakethe yama-smartphone yaseShayina ithumele cishe amayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-72.92, phansi ngo-12.6% unyaka nonyaka.
Isidingo esingeke savuswa sizocindezela abenzi bama-chip abakhuphuka nomfula, ama-chips asekhaya omakhalekhukhwini, ikakhulukazi uhlelo lwe-Android lubhekene nengcindezi enkulu yokusungula.
Ngo-2022, i-Q3, iqoqo labakhiqizi bama-chip chain omakhalekhukhwini besistimu yasekhaya ye-Android laqhubeka likhuphuka ngendandatho efanayo, kubakhiqizi bama-chip chain basekhaya i-Weir, i-Josun Micro kanye ne-Huideng Technology, isibonelo, izinsuku zokutholwa kwempahla yezinkampani ezintathu. zisondele noma zingaphezu kwezinsuku ezingama-250, ezeqa izinga elijwayelekile leminyaka emithathu edlule.Amazinga we-Inventory abelokhu enyuka ngekota ngekota kusukela ngo-21Q1, kwathi ngo-22Q3 izinsuku zokutholwa kwezimpahla zezinkampani ezintathu sezifinyelele ezinsukwini ezingama-277, 284 nezingu-247 ngokulandelana, zidlula kude izinga elijwayelekile lezinsuku eziyi-113 labakhi bama-chip omakhalekhukhwini bomhlaba.
Ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone yomhlaba wonke kuhlale kubhala imiphumela emibi kakhulu emlandweni, isamba esimaphakathi sama-chips omakhalekhukhwini siqhubeka nokusetha ukuphakama okusha, nakuba ukwehla komakhalekhukhwini kuyiqiniso elingenakuphikiswa, kodwa manje ku-Great Recession lapho phansi komjikelezo we-chip, lapho ukutakula kwe-semiconductor, ukusebenza kwe-smartphone, kusahlola ukuzethemba kwawo wonke umuntu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-24-2023