Izintengo zama-chip ziyancipha, ama-chips awathengiswa.Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, ngenxa yesidingo esivilaphayo ku-umthengi electronicsemakethe, imboni yama-chip yake yangenisa igagasi lokwehliswa kwentengo, futhi engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, itulo laziphinda.
Muva nje, izindaba ze-CCTV zibike ukuthi njengengxenye eyinhloko yohlelo lokulawula ngogesi,I-STMicroelectronicsama-chips ake aba ngeminye yemikhiqizo ye-chip eyayifunwa kakhulu ngo-2021, futhi isilinganiso semakethe sake sakhuphuka safinyelela kumayuan angaba ngu-3,500, kodwa ngo-2022, i-chip efanayo yehla isuka phezulu yaya kuma-yuan angaba ngu-600, yehle yafika ku-80%.
Ngokuqondana nje, intengo yenye i-chip ngonyaka odlule yayihluke ngokuphindwe kashumi kulo nyaka.Izintengo ze-chip ziqhathaniswa nengulube, phezulu naphansi, intengo ephakeme kakhulu kanye nomehluko wangaphambilini wentengo evamile uyihaba ngokwedlulele, kubikwa ukuthi abezindaba babike ama-yuan angama-600 we-STMicroelectronics chips, intengo evamile ngo-2020 ingamashumi ambalwa nje ama-yuan.
Kubonakala sengathi i-chip craze isidlulile, ingabe ifu elimnyama eligubuzele wonke umbuthano wezobuchwepheshe ngonyaka odlule selizophakama?Ngokusho kukaBloomberg, iningi lezinkampani zama-chip zikholelwa ukuthi le makethe eshisayo izoba noshintsho olukhulu isikhathi eside esikhathini esizayo, futhi ngisho nabanye abantu banethemba lokuthi imboni ye-semiconductor izoletha ukwehla okubi kakhulu eminyakeni eyishumi.
A izinjabulo ezimbalwa, usizi ezimbalwa, chip amanani avalanche, ngaphezu embonini buthule, ngesaba ukuthi kukhona izimakethe ezingenakubalwa zomkhosi.
01I-chip yehla, kodwa hhayi ngokuphelele?
Ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zama-chip akuhlukaniseki ekusetshenzisweni kukagesi emhlabeni jikelele.
Kusuka embikweni wakamuva wezezimali we-TSMC, kungabonakala ukuthi ibhizinisi le-smartphone, elake lasekela ingxenye yezwe, alisewona umthombo omkhulu wemali engenayo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ingxenye yaleli bhizinisi iqhubeke nokwehla.Ngokusho kweCINNO Research, ukuthunyelwa kwetheminali ye-SoC yaseChina engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022 bekucishe kube yizigidi eziyi-134, phansi cishe ngo-16.9% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokuqondene nohlangothi lwe-PC, ngokwenkampani yocwaningo lwemakethe i-Mercury Research, engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka, ukuthunyelwa kwe-desktop processor processor kwehle kwafika ezingeni eliphansi cishe eminyakeni engama-30, ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kwamaprosesa kube nokwehla okukhulu konyaka nonyaka kusukela ngo-1984. , ukuthengiswa kwe-smartphone yaseNingizimu Korea kwehle ngo-29.2% unyaka nonyaka ngoJulayi, ukuthunyelwa kwekhompiyutha nemishini yokusiza kwehle ngo-21.9%, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwe-memory chip kuholele ukwehla ngokuncipha kwe-13.5%.
Isidingo esikhuphuka nomfula siyehla, ama-oda angezansi ayaqhubeka nokuncipha, futhi izintengo zipholile ngokwemvelo.
Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi lawa ma-chips anciphise amanani awadlali noma iyiphi indima ekuhlanganiseni yonke imboni ye-semiconductor.Ingabe ama-chips ehlile ngempela intengo?Ngaphansi kwezindaba "ze-plummeting", kusenabakhiqizi abamemezele ukwenyuka kwentengo ngokumelene nomkhuba, njenge-Intel, i-Qualcomm, i-Meiman Electronics, i-Broadcom, njll. bahlela ukunyusa intengo yeminye imikhiqizo yabo ye-chip.
Sithatha i-Intel njengesibonelo, ngokusho kukaNikkei, i-Intel yazise amakhasimende ukuthi izonyusa intengo yemikhiqizo ye-semiconductor engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi inyuse intengo yohlu olubanzi lwemikhiqizo efana namaseva asemqoka kanye ne-CPU yekhompyutha. amaphrosesa nama-chips we-peripheral, futhi ukwanda kuyahlukahluka kuye ngokuthi uhlobo lwe-chip, oluphansi kunawo wonke ngamadijithi owodwa, futhi ukwanda okuphezulu kungafinyelela ku-10% kuya ku-20%.
Ingabe intengo yama-chips ikhuphukile?Kungashiwo ukuthi intengo yama-chips e-electronics abathengi yehle ngokuzumayo ngenxa yokwehla kwesidingo, kodwa isidingo sama-MCU kwezinye izinkambu zokufaka isicelo siyaqhubeka nokuba namandla, njengokulawulwa kwezimoto nezimboni, okuholele emananini aphezulu we ama-chips ahlobene.Kusukela ekuqaleni kokuthunyelwa komakhalekhukhwini okungajwayelekile, ikusasa lemboni yama-chip libhalwe ngokuthakazelisayo njengokudayiswa kancane, kodwa empeleni, ukushoda kwama-chip kwezinye izimboni akukakapheli.
Ikakhulukazi ama-chips ezimoto, idatha ye-2022 China Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum ibonisa ukuthi imikhiqizo yamanje ye-chip ingahlangabezana nesilinganiso esingama-31% sezidingo zabakhiqizi bezimoto, u-Xpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng uphinde wathi ukushoda kwe-chip embonini yezimoto akukapheli. , i-GAC ngoJuni inikeze idatha yokuthi i-GAC ibhekane nokushoda kwe-chip yezingcezu ezingafika ku-33,000 kwikota yesibili.
Imboni entsha yamandla ibilokhu ihamba kahle, futhi isidingo sama-chips esikhathini esizayo asinakubukelwa phansi.Kubikwa ukuthi imoto ejwayelekile idinga ukusebenzisa ama-chips angu-500,izimoto ezintsha zamandlaafakwe ama-chips amaningi, ngonyaka odlule ukuthengiswa kwezimoto emhlabeni wonke cishe kwezigidi ezingu-81.05, okusho ukuthi, lonke uchungechunge lwemboni yezimoto ludinga ama-chips ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-40.5.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-chips asezingeni eliphezulu asephezulu e-altare lemakethe, ngakolunye uhlangothi, uchungechunge lwemboni ekhuphukayo lwama-chips anobuchwepheshe benqubo ethuthukisiwe alukaze luphele.Phambilini kwabikwa ukuthi i-chip ye-TSMC ye-3nm izozuza ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi ngoSepthemba, futhi i-Apple izoba yikhasimende lokuqala ukusebenzisa i-chip ye-TSMC ye-3nm.
Kubikwa ukuthi i-Apple izofaka iprosesa entsha ye-A17 ngonyaka ozayo, kanye ne-M3 series processor, ezosebenzisa ama-nanometers amathathu e-TSMC.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona ukushoda kwemishini ye-semiconductor yenqubo ephezulu, futhi ukukhishwa kwezinqubo ezithuthukisiwe ze-3nm ne-2nm akuhlosiwe ukuba kube phezulu, futhi kungase kube negebe lokuhlinzeka lika-10% kuya ku-20% ngo-2024 ~ 2025.
Lokho kwenza kube mancane amathuba okuthi amanani ehle.Zonke izinkomba zisitshela ukuthi ama-chips ayawa futhi imboni ayilula njengoba ibonakala.
02 Ingabe ama-chips omthengi awavumelekile?
Olunye uhlangothi luthulile, olunye aluphumelelanga.
Ama-chips we-elekthronikhi yabathengi adlule esikhathini esihle kakhulu seminyaka emibili yokuqala, futhi ngokuncipha kokusetshenziswa kwe-elekthronikhi, agcine ehle e-altare.Njengamanje, izinkampani eziningi zama-chip seziqalile ukuba matasa zishintsha amabhizinisi azo, zisuka kubathengi ziye ezindaweni zezimoto nezobunjiniyela.I-TSMC ifake ohlwini imakethe yezimoto njengephrojekthi ebaluleke kakhulu eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi kubikwa ukuthi ngasohlangothini lwezwekazi, ibhizinisi lezimoto labadlali basekhaya be-MCU abanjengoGigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, kanye ne-AMEC nalo liya ngokuya libonakala. .
Ngokuqondile, i-GigaDevice ingene esigabeni sokuhlola isampula yekhasimende ngomkhiqizo wayo wokuqala we-MCU yezinga lezimoto ngoMashi, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi izuze ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi kulo nyaka;I-Zhongying Electronics isetshenziselwa ikakhulukazi ingxenye yokulawula umzimba ye-MCU, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ibuye maphakathi nonyaka;I-AMEC Semiconductor ibonise ukuzimisela kwayo ukuthuthukisa ama-chips ezimoto ku-prospectus yayo, futhi i-IPO yayo ihlela ukukhulisa ama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-729, lapho ama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-283 azosetshenziselwa ucwaningo lwe-chip yezinga lezimoto kanye namaphrojekthi wokuthuthukiswa.
Phela, izinga lokwenziwa kwasendaweni kwama-chips ekhompyutha yezimoto ezifuywayo kanye nokulawula lingaphansi kuka-1%, izinga lendawo yezinzwa lingaphansi kuka-4%, futhi izinga lendawo lama-semiconductors amandla, inkumbulo, nokuxhumana ngu-8%, 8%, futhi 3%, ngokulandelana.Ukwakhiwa kwezimoto ezintsha zasekhaya kuyingozi, futhi yonke imvelo ehlakaniphile ehlanganisa ukushayela ukuzimela izodla inani elikhulu lama-semiconductors esikhathini esizayo.
Futhi kuzoba nzima kangakanani ukuqhubeka nokunamathela kuma-chips abathengi?
Phambilini kwabikwa ukuthi abakwaSamsung bake bamisa ukuthengwa kwawo wonke amayunithi ebhizinisi, okuhlanganisa amaphaneli, omakhalekhukhwini nama-memory chips, futhi ngisho nabakhiqizi abaningi benkumbulo baseKorea bazothatha isinyathelo sokwehlisa amanani ngaphezu kuka-5% ukuze badayise.I-Nuvoton Technology, egxile ekuthengeni i-electronics, iphinde yabona inzuzo yayo ikhuphuka izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-5.5 ngonyaka odlule, ngenzuzo ephelele ye-NT $ 7.27 ngesabelo ngasinye.Ukusebenza kwaba phansi ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi kulo nyaka, imali engenayo yehle ngo-2.18% kanye no-3.04% ngokulandelana kwayo inyanga nenyanga.
Umuntu angase angachazi lutho, kodwa idatha ye-Wind ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-May 9, izinkampani ze-semiconductor ze-126 emhlabeni jikelele zimemezele imibiko yazo yezezimali ngekota yokuqala ka-2022, okuyi-16 yazo eye yabhekana nokwehla konyaka ngonyaka emalini yenzuzo noma ngisho nokulahlekelwa.Ama-chips abathengi asheshisa ukuwa kwawo, futhi izimoto nokulawulwa kwezimboni sekuyindawo elandelayo yokufuna inzuzo emakethe yama-chip.
Kodwa ingabe kulula ngempela njengoba kubonakala?
Ikakhulukazi kwabanye abakhiqizi bama-chip basekhaya, ukusuka emkhakheni wezinto zikagesi ezithengwayo uye endaweni yezimoto kungaphezulu kakhulu kokushisa kwemakethe.Okokuqala, ama-chips asekhaya kufanele abe nezansi nomfula, futhi insimu yabathengi iqala kuqala, ibalwa ngama-27%.Ngisho noma ubheka umhlaba, imakethe yasekhaya nayo iyimakethe enkulu kunazo zonke ye-semiconductor, idatha ibonisa ukuthi ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor emakethe yezwe laseShayina kwafinyelela ku-29.62 billion wamadola aseMelika, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngonyaka ka-58%, emhlabeni jikelele. Imakethe enkulu kunazo zonke ye-semiconductor, ibalwa ku-28.9% wesamba sokuthengiswa kwe-semiconductor emhlabeni.
Okwesibili, imboni yama-chip ngokwayo inomkhawulo wenzuzo enkulu kuma-smart phone nasezindaweni ezihlobene ne-5G.Isibonelo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC kubala u-70% wemakethe yezimoto ye-MCU, kodwa ama-chips ezimoto afaka kuphela u-3.31% wemali engenayo ka-2020.Ngo-Q1 2022, izingxenye ze-TSMC ze-smartphone kanye ne-HPC zizobalelwa ku-40% no-41% wensalela yemali engenayo ngokulandelana, kuyilapho imoto ye-IOT i-DCE nezinye zizobalelwa ku-8%, 5%, 3% no-3% ngokulandelana.
Isidingo sincane, kodwa inzuzo isekhona, futhi inkinga cishe iyikhanda elikhulu emakethe ye-semiconductor.
03 Ngemuva kwe-boom, abathengi bajabule?
Lapho intengo yama-chips inyakaziswa, abajabula kakhulu ngabathengi, omakhalekhukhwini, izimoto ngisho nezinto zikagesi zasendlini ezihlakaniphile seziphenduke indawo yobumnandi evame ukulindeleka ngemva kokuba intengo yama-chips yehlisiwe, ikakhulukazi omakhalekhukhwini.Akuphelanga sikhathi esingakanani kuqubuke intengo yama-chip, kwaba khona abantu abamemeza ezinkundleni zokuxhumana bethi bathenge omakhalekhukhwini engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka.
Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, intengo yamandla amasha yehliswa, intengo yemikhiqizo kagesi yehliswa, futhi intengo yezinto zikagesi zasendlini yehliswa… Amazwi anjengalawa ayeza aphinde ahambe.Kodwa-ke, awukho ukuthambekela okucacile okwamanje ukuthi kuzoba nokwehliswa kwentengo okuhambisanayo yini ochungechungeni lomkhiqizo, kodwa uma sikhuluma ngokungagwegwesi, leli gagasi lokwehliswa kwentengo ye-chip ngeke libangele ukwehla kwentengo enkulu emakethe yabathengi.
Okokuqala bheka inkambu yeselula enamandla kakhulu, eminyakeni yamuva, abakhiqizi befoni ephathekayo bahlale bephakamisa amanani, ukuthula okuphansi, i-swagger ephezulu, amathuba okunciphisa amanani okwesikhashana aphansi kakhulu.Ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo enkulu yabakhiqizi bezingcingo eziphathwayo basekhaya ayizange ibe phezulu.Engqungqutheleni yabathuthukisi beHuawei, u-Yang Haisong, iphini likamongameli woMnyango we-software yebhizinisi labathengi bakwaHuawei, uthe inzuzo yabakhiqizi bezingcingo zaseShayina iphansi ngokudabukisayo, futhi isabelo semakethe yomakhalekhukhwini yasekhaya singaphezu kwesigamu, kodwa inzuzo icishe ibe yi-10 kuphela. %.
Futhi, i-chip iphansi ngempela, kodwa intengo yezinye izingxenye ayihloniphekile kangako, njengezinzwa nezikrini, amamodeli asezingeni eliphezulu aya ngokuya eba yinto evamile, abakhiqizi bezingcingo eziphathwayo ezidingweni ze-supply chain ngokwemvelo baqina kakhulu. kubikwa ukuthi i-OPPO, i-Xiaomi yake yenza ngokwezifiso izinzwa ezikhethekile ku-Sony ne-Samsung.
Ngale ndlela, kuyisibusiso kubathengi ukuthi intengo yomakhalekhukhwini inganyuki.
Uma ubheka amandla amasha, i-chip evamile eyehlisa intengo ngalesi sikhathi ekuqaleni yayingekho emkhakheni wokukhiqiza izimoto, ingasaphathwa, ukukhuphuka kwentengo kumbuthano wezimoto ezintsha zamandla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kwakungekho ngisho, futhi isizathu ngemuva kwakho kwakungeyona yonke inkinga ye-chip.Intengo yezinto ezisetshenziswa ngobuningi iyenyuka, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi i-nickel, insimbi, i-aluminium ehlanganisa ama-electrode amahle noma angalungile, intengo ikhuphuka kuphela, izindleko zamabhethri zihlala ziphezulu, futhi izici ezihlukahlukene ngokusobala azikwazi ukuthi zifakwe ku-chip kuphela.
Vele, umbuthano wokwenza imoto awukona ukubuyiswa kwe-chip encane akubonakali, kusukela kulo nyaka, ama-chips akhipha ukukhanya kwe-LED nama-driver chips anokwehla kwentengo ngo-30% -40%, okungangabazeki ukuthi kuzodlala indima ethile ye-buffer izindleko ezilandelayo zomnikazi wemoto.
Ngokungeziwe kuma-smart phone, umthelela omkhulu wama-chips wabathengi cishe amadivayisi ahlakaniphile asendlini njengama-air conditioners neziqandisi, futhi isidingo sama-MCU wezinto ezintathu zikagesi ezinkulu ezimhlophe ezifuywayo asikho phansi ngempela, sisuka ezigidini ezingama-570 ngo-2017 siya ngaphezu kuka-700. million ngo-2022, lapho ama-MCUs anesimo somoya ebalelwa ngaphezu kwama-60%.
Kodwa-ke, ama-chips asetshenziswa emkhakheni wasekhaya ohlakaniphile ngokuyisisekelo angama-chips anesimo esiphansi anezinqubo ezibuyela emuva, eziphikisana kakhulu nezinqubo ezithuthukisiwe ezifana ne-3nm ne-7nm, ngokuvamile ephakeme kuno-28nm noma 45nm.Uyazi, lawa ma-chips asetshenziswa kakhulu ngenxa yokuqukethwe kwawo okuphansi kwezobuchwepheshe, futhi intengo yeyunithi ayiphezulu.
Ezinkampanini ezisebenza ekhaya, ubuchwepheshe obuphansi busho ukuthi zingakwazi ukufeza ukuzimela.Ngo-2017, isigaba se-Gree's microelectronics sasungulwa;Ku-2018, u-Konka umemezele ukusungulwa okusemthethweni kokuhlukaniswa kwezobuchwepheshe kwama-semiconductors;Ngo-2018, iMidea yamemezela ukungena kwayo ekukhiqizeni ama-chip futhi yasungula i-Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., kwathi ngoJanuwari 2021, kwasungulwa i-Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd., ngesilinganiso samanje sonyaka sokukhiqiza ngobuningi esingaba yizigidi eziyi-10 zama-MCU chips.
Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele, izinkampani eziningi zendabuko zasekhaya ezifana ne-TCL, i-Konka, i-Skyworth, ne-Haier ziye zabeka insimu ye-semiconductor, ngamanye amazwi, lo mkhakha awuvinjelwa ama-chips nhlobo.
Phansi, noma hhayi phansi?Lokhu kwehliswa kwentengo ye-chip kufana nokushutha okungamanga, abakhiqizi abakhuphuka nomfula abajabule okwesikhashana, kungasaphathwa abathengi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-29-2022