Emjikelezweni wokwehla wango-2023, amagama abalulekile njengokudilizwa emsebenzini, ama-oda anqunyiwe, kanye nokucishwa kokuqothuka kugijima embonini yama-chip eguqubele.
Ngo-2024, ogcwele umcabango, yiziphi izinguquko ezintsha, izitayela ezintsha namathuba amasha imboni ye-semiconductor ezoba nawo?
1. Imakethe izokhula ngo-20%
Muva nje, ucwaningo lwakamuva lwe-International Data Corporation (IDC) lukhombisa ukuthi imali engenayo ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ngo-2023 yehle ngo-12.0% unyaka nonyaka, yafinyelela ku-$526.5 billion, kodwa ingaphezulu kwesilinganiso se-ejensi sama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-519 ngoSepthemba.Kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-20.2% unyaka nonyaka iye ku- $633 billion ngo-2024, isuka esibikezelweni sangaphambilini sama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-626.
Ngokusho kwesibikezelo se-ejensi, ukubonakala kokukhula kwe-semiconductor kuzokhula njengoba ukulungiswa kwe-inventory yesikhathi eside ezingxenyeni ezimbili ezinkulu zemakethe, i-PC kanye ne-smartphone, ukufiphala, kanye namazinga wokusungulaezezimotofuthi izimboni kulindeleke ukuthi zibuyele emazingeni ajwayelekile engxenyeni yesibili ka-2024 njengoba ukufakwa kukagesi kuqhubeka nokugqugquzela ukukhula kokuqukethwe kwe-semiconductor kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi izingxenye zemakethe ezinomkhuba wokuphindaphinda noma umfutho wokukhula ngo-2024 zingama-smartphones, amakhompyutha omuntu siqu, amaseva, izimoto, kanye nezimakethe ze-AI.
1.1 I-Smart Phone
Ngemuva kweminyaka ecishe ibe mithathu yokuwohloka, imakethe yama-smartphone ekugcineni yaqala ukukhuphuka umfutho kusukela engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2023.
Ngokusho kwedatha yocwaningo lwe-Counterpoint, ngemuva kwezinyanga ezingama-27 ezilandelanayo zokwehla konyaka nonyaka ekuthengisweni kwama-smartphone emhlabeni jikelele, ivolumu yokuqala yokuthengisa (okungukuthi, ukuthengiswa kwezitolo) ngo-Okthoba 2023 inyuke ngo-5% unyaka nonyaka.
Izibikezelo ze-Canalys zibikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphone unyaka wonke kuzofinyelela kumayunithi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.13 ngo-2023, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule amayunithi angama-4% kuye ku-1.17 billion ngo-2024. 2023-2027) ka-2.6%.
USanyam Chaurasia, umhlaziyi omkhulu kwaCanalys, uthe, "Ukuphindaphinda kwama-smartphones ngo-2024 kuzoqhutshwa izimakethe ezisafufusa, lapho ama-smartphones ehlala eyingxenye ebalulekile yokuxhumana, ukuzijabulisa kanye nokukhiqiza."U-Chaurasia uthi i-smartphone eyodwa kwamathathu athunyelwe ngo-2024 izovela esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific, isuka kweyodwa kweziyisihlanu ngo-2017. Iqhutshwa ukufunwa kabusha eNdiya, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia naseNingizimu Asia, lesi sifunda sizophinde sibe ngesinye sezindawo ezikhula ngokushesha. ngamaphesenti ayisi-6 ngonyaka.
Kuyafaneleka ukusho ukuthi uchungechunge lwamanje lwemboni yocingo oluhlakaniphile luvuthwe kakhulu, ukuncintisana kwesitoko kushubile, futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthuthukiswa kwesayensi nobuchwepheshe, ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni, ukuqeqeshwa kwethalente nezinye izici zidonsa imboni yocingo oluhlakaniphile ukugqamisa umphakathi wayo. inani.
1.2 Amakhompyutha Omuntu Siqu
Ngokwesibikezelo sakamuva se-TrendForce Consulting, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhuku okubhalela emhlabeni wonke kuzofinyelela kumayunithi ayizigidi eziyi-167 ngo-2023, kwehle ngo-10.2% unyaka nonyaka.Kodwa-ke, njengoba ingcindezi yokusungula iyancipha, imakethe yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele emjikelezweni wokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo onempilo kanye nesidingo ngo-2024, kanti isikali sokuthunyelwa kwemakethe yezincwadi zamanothi kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele kumayunithi ayizigidi eziyi-172 ngo-2024, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-3.2% .Umfutho oyinhloko wokukhula uvela esidingweni sokushintshwa kwemakethe yebhizinisi elibulalayo, kanye nokwandiswa kwama-Chromebook namalaptop e-sports.
I-TrendForce iphinde yasho isimo sokuthuthukiswa kwe-AI PC embikweni.I-ejensi ikholelwa ukuthi ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme zokuthuthukisa isofthiwe ne-hardware ehlobene ne-AI PC, ukuthuthukiswa kokuqala kuzogxila kubasebenzisi bebhizinisi bezinga eliphezulu nabadali bokuqukethwe.Ukuvela kwe-AI PCS ngeke kushukumise isidingo esengeziwe sokuthengwa kwe-PC, iningi lazo elizoshintshela kumadivayisi we-AI PC kanye nenqubo yokushintsha ibhizinisi ngo-2024.
Ohlangothini lwabathengi, idivayisi ye-PC yamanje inganikeza izinhlelo zokusebenza ze-AI zefu ukuze zihlangabezane nezidingo zokuphila kwansuku zonke, ukuzijabulisa, uma lungekho uhlelo lokusebenza lombulali we-AI esikhathini esifushane, beka phambili umuzwa wokuthuthukisa isipiliyoni se-AI, kuzoba nzima khulisa ngokushesha ukuthandwa kwe-PC yabathengi be-AI.Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngemuva kokuthi kungenzeka ukusetshenziswa kwamathuluzi e-AI ahlukahlukene athuthukiswe esikhathini esizayo, futhi umkhawulo wamanani wehlisiwe, izinga lokungena labathengi be-AI PCS lisengalindelwa.
1.3 Amaseva kanye Nezikhungo Zedatha
Ngokusho kwe-Trendforce izilinganiso, amaseva e-AI (kuhlanganise ne-GPU,I-FPGA, ASIC, njll.) izothumela amayunithi angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-1.2 ngo-2023, ngokunyuka konyaka ngama-37.7%, okubalelwa ku-9% wokuthunyelwa kwamaseva sekukonke, futhi izokhula ngaphezu kwama-38% ngo-2024, futhi amaseva e-AI azolandisa. ngaphezu kwe-12%.
Ngezinhlelo zokusebenza ezinjengama-chatbots nobuhlakani bokwenziwa obukhiqizayo, abahlinzeki abakhulu bezixazululo zamafu bakhuphule utshalomali lwabo kubuhlakani bokwenziwa, okuqhubekisela phambili isidingo samaseva e-AI.
Kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2024, isidingo samaseva e-AI siqhutshwa ikakhulukazi ukutshalwa kwezimali okusebenzayo kwabahlinzeki bezixazululo zefu, futhi ngemva kuka-2024, kuzonwetshwa emikhakheni yohlelo lokusebenza lapho izinkampani zitshala izimali kumamodeli we-AI ochwepheshe kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesevisi yesofthiwe, okugqugquzela ukukhula amaseva e-AI asemaphethelweni afakwe i-Gpus ye-oda eliphansi - neliphakathi.Kulindeleke ukuthi isilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka sokuthunyelwa kweseva ye-AI sibe ngaphezu kwama-20% ukusuka ngo-2023 kuya ku-2026.
1.4 Izimoto ezintsha zamandla
Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo komkhuba omusha wesimanje, isidingo sama-chips embonini yezimoto siyakhula.
Kusukela ekulawuleni okuyisisekelo kwesistimu yamandla kuya kumasistimu okusiza abashayeli (ADAS), ubuchwepheshe obungashayeli kanye nezinhlelo zokuzijabulisa zezimoto, kunokuthembela okukhulu kuma-electronic chips.Ngokwemininingwane ehlinzekwe yi-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, inani lama-chips emoto adingekayo ezimotweni zikaphethiloli zendabuko ngu-600-700, inani lama-chips emoto adingekayo ezimotweni zikagesi lizokhuphuka lifinyelele ku-1600 / imoto, kanye nesidingo sama-chips. izimoto ezihlakaniphile ezithuthuke kakhulu kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke ziye ku-3000 / imoto.
Idatha efanelekile ibonisa ukuthi ngo-2022, usayizi wemakethe ye-chip yezimoto emhlabeni wonke ucishe ube ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-310.Emakethe yaseShayina, lapho amandla amasha anamandla khona, ukudayiswa kwezimoto zaseChina kufinyelele ku-4.58 trillion yuan, kanti imakethe yezimoto yaseChina yafinyelela ku-121.9 billion yuan.Ingqikithi yokuthengiswa kwezimoto zaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ezigidini ezingama-31 ngo-2024, ikhuphuke ngo-3% kusukela ngonyaka owedlule, ngokusho kwe-CAAM.Phakathi kwazo, ukudayiswa kwezimoto zabagibeli bekulinganiselwa ezigidini ezingama-26.8, nokunyuke ngamaphesenti angama-3.1.Ukudayiswa kwezimoto ezintsha ezisebenza ngamandla kuzofinyelela ezigidini ezingu-11.5, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-20% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lokungena elihlakaniphile lezimoto ezintsha zamandla nalo liyakhula.Emcabangweni womkhiqizo ka-2024, ikhono lobuhlakani lizoba yisiqondiso esibalulekile esigcizelelwa imikhiqizo emisha eminingi.
Lokhu kusho nokuthi isidingo sama-chips emakethe yezimoto ngonyaka ozayo sisesikhulu.
2. Izitayela zobuchwepheshe bezimboni
2.1I-AI Chip
I-AI ibikhona unyaka wonke ka-2023, futhi izohlala iyigama elingukhiye elibalulekile ngo-2024.
Imakethe yama-chips asetshenziselwa ukwenza imisebenzi yobuhlakani bokufakelwa (AI) ikhula ngenani elingaphezu kwama-20% ngonyaka.Usayizi wemakethe ye-chip ye-AI uzofinyelela ku-$53.4 billion ngo-2023, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-20.9% ngo-2022, futhi uzokhula ngo-25.6% ngo-2024 ufinyelele ku-$67.1 billion.Ngo-2027, imali engenayo ye-chip ye-AI kulindeleke ukuthi ibe ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kosayizi wemakethe ka-2023, ifinyelele ku-$119.4 billion.
Abahlaziyi bakaGartner baveza ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa okukhulu kwesikhathi esizayo kwama-chips e-AI kuzothatha indawo yesakhiwo samanje se-chip esibusayo (i-discrete Gpus) ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nenqwaba yemisebenzi esekelwe ku-AI, ikakhulukazi leyo esekelwe kubuchwepheshe be-AI obukhiqizayo.
2.2 2.5/3D Advanced Packaging market
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngokuvela kwenqubo yokukhiqiza ama-chip, inqubekelaphambili yokuphindaphinda "Yomthetho kaMoore" yehlile, okuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwezindleko eziphansi zokukhula kokusebenza kwe-chip.Nakuba uMthetho kaMoore wehlile, isidingo sekhompiyutha senyuke kakhulu.Ngokuthuthuka okusheshayo kwezinkambu ezisafufusa ezifana ne-cloud computing, idatha enkulu, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa, nokushayela ngokuzenzakalelayo, izidingo zokusebenza kahle zamashiphu wamandla ekhompuyutha ziya ngokuya ziba phezulu.
Ngaphansi kwezinselelo eziningi namathrendi, imboni ye-semiconductor isiqalile ukuhlola indlela entsha yokuthuthukisa.Phakathi kwazo, ukupakishwa okuthuthukisiwe kuye kwaba ithrekhi ebalulekile, edlala indima ebalulekile ekuthuthukiseni ukuhlanganiswa kwe-chip, ukunciphisa ibanga le-chip, ukusheshisa uxhumano lukagesi phakathi kwama-chips, nokuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle.
I-2.5D ngokwayo iwubukhulu obungekho emhlabeni wenhloso, ngoba ukuminyana kwayo okuhlanganisiwe kudlula i-2D, kodwa ayikwazi ukufinyelela ukuminyana okuhlanganisiwe kwe-3D, ngakho ibizwa ngokuthi i-2.5D.Emkhakheni wokupakisha okuthuthukisiwe, i-2.5D ibhekisela ekuhlanganisweni kongqimba oluphakathi, okwamanje olwenziwa kakhulu ngezinto ze-silicon, lisebenzisa inqubo yalo yokuvuthwa kanye nezici zokuxhumanisa okuphezulu.
Ubuchwepheshe bokupakisha be-3D kanye ne-2.5D buhlukile ekuxhumekeni kokuminyana okuphezulu ngongqimba oluphakathi, i-3D isho ukuthi asikho isendlalelo esiphakathi esidingekayo, futhi i-chip ixhunywe ngokuqondile nge-TSV (ngobuchwepheshe be-silicon).
I-International Data Corporation IDC ibikezela ukuthi imakethe yokupakisha engu-2.5/3D kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka (CAGR) lama-22% ukusuka ngo-2023 kuya ku-2028, okuyindawo ekhathaza kakhulu emakethe yokuhlola ukupakishwa kwe-semiconductor ngokuzayo.
2.3 HBM
I-H100 chip, i-H100 bunqunu ithatha indawo eyinhloko, kukhona izitaki ezintathu ze-HBM ohlangothini ngalunye, futhi indawo eyisithupha ye-HBM yokuhlanganisa ilingana nobunqunu be-H100.Lawa ma-memory chips ayisithupha ajwayelekile angenye "yezigebengu" zokushoda kokunikezwa kwe-H100.
I-HBM ithatha ingxenye yendima yenkumbulo ku-GPU.Ngokungafani nenkumbulo yendabuko ye-DDR, i-HBM empeleni ibeka inkumbulo eminingi ye-DRAM iqonde endaweni eqondile, engagcini nje ngokukhuphula umthamo wenkumbulo, kodwa futhi ilawula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla enkumbulo nendawo ye-chip kahle, inciphisa isikhala esihlala ngaphakathi kwephakheji.Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-HBM ifinyelela umkhawulokudonsa ophezulu ngesisekelo senkumbulo ye-DDR yendabuko ngokukhulisa kakhulu inani lamaphini ukuze kufinyelelwe ibhasi lememori lamabhithi angu-1024 ububanzi ngesitaki ngasinye se-HBM.
Ukuqeqeshwa kwe-AI kunezidingo eziphakeme zokuphishekela ukuphuma kwedatha nokubambezeleka kokudluliswa kwedatha, ngakho-ke i-HBM nayo idingeka kakhulu.
Ngo-2020, izixazululo ze-ultra-bandwidth ezimelelwe inkumbulo yomkhawulokudonsa ophezulu (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) zaqala ukuvela kancane kancane.Ngemuva kokungena ku-2023, ukwanda okuhlanyayo kwemakethe yobuhlakani bokwenziwa ekhiqizwayo emelwe i-ChatGPT kukhulise isidingo samaseva e-AI ngokushesha, kodwa futhi kuholele ekwenyukeni kokuthengiswa kwemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu njenge-HBM3.
Ucwaningo lwe-Omdia lubonisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2027, izinga lokukhula lonyaka lemali engenayo yemakethe ye-HBM kulindeleke ukuthi linyuke ngo-52%, futhi isabelo salo semali engenayo yemakethe ye-DRAM kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke sisuka ku-10% ngo-2023 siye cishe ku-20% ngo-2027. intengo ye-HBM3 cishe iphindwe kahlanu kuya kweziyisithupha kunama-chips e-DRAM ajwayelekile.
2.4 Ukuxhumana Ngesathelayithi
Kubasebenzisi abajwayelekile, lo msebenzi uyazikhethela, kodwa kubantu abathanda imidlalo eyingozi, noma abasebenza ngaphansi kwezimo ezinzima ezifana nezingwadule, lobu buchwepheshe buzosebenza kakhulu, futhi "busindise impilo".Ukuxhumana ngesathelayithi kuba inkundla yempi elandelayo eqondiswe ngabakhiqizi bamaselula.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-02-2024